Daily Homicides in the nation Decline 37% During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean figure of per-day murders monthly in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government data. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not signal improved national stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen in these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.