🔗 Share this article

The most severe projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by researchers, encompassing a blistering 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in ocean levels. An alternative projection predicts a decline of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy demand.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These impacts, some of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are considered as unlikely but credible. The team stated that these scenarios filled a gap in forecasting that had left the UK ill-prepared for extreme outcomes.

"The severe weather events we have mapped are not forecasts, but they are possible," said the lead researcher who directed the research. "The UK has been making preparations in the absence of the tools to test against extreme possibilities. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Scenarios

A second set of severe models details the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These indicate that thermometer readings could skyrocket in some months by up to 6C higher than historical levels, while rainfall could be three times typical amounts.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what action will be taken to address global warming and how the Earth's systems will respond. This approach was compared to national security risk assessments or stress tests for financial systems.

Major Scenario Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation collapses or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source release its enormous store of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heat domes and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water resources would be completely altered," noted the professor.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging low-lying areas. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion block sunlight from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

The worst-case scenarios could be utilized in planning the development of major projects, including new towns, energy plants and water management networks. Knowledge about these future hazards could also speed the drive to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The study formulated the extreme models using a combination of real-world events, digital projections and established principles. The scenarios exclude international cascading effects including the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

The research was commissioned as part of a national adaptation planning initiative. Independent analyses have stated that not enough attention was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the dangers for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the center of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is ready for the effects."